Wintermute Analyst Predicts Corporate Bitcoin Adoption to Surge in 2025
A Wintermute analyst suggests that the trend of corporations incorporating Bitcoin into their financial reserves is likely to gain significant momentum in 2025, potentially becoming a major catalyst for crypto demand.
Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter (OTC) trader at the market-making firm Wintermute, shared his insights with The Block, stating, "I think that is now going to be quite a big driver next year when you get the corporates coming in on top of the institutions, and their own institutional base of listed companies that are trying to get exposure. You're likely to see the SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] come in as well." This prediction indicates a broadening adoption of Bitcoin across various business sizes.
MicroStrategy's substantial Bitcoin acquisitions, totaling $10 billion with plans for an additional $42 billion through equity leveraging, have set a precedent for this strategy. Ostrovskis highlighted Bitcoin mining companies like Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) as examples of firms emulating MicroStrategy's approach by issuing convertible notes to increase their Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, Metaplanet recently announced intentions to raise $31.8 million through bond issuance to expedite Bitcoin purchases.
The underlying principle behind this strategy is that accumulating Bitcoin can enhance a company's balance sheet and potentially drive up its stock price. This approach has become known as the "MicroStrategy strategy."
Ostrovskis contrasted the potential impact of corporate adoption with the ongoing discussion surrounding Bitcoin ETFs. While ETFs are expected to attract investments from entities like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, he argued that the corporate sector represents a more agile and readily available source of capital. “People at the moment are talking about the impact of ETFs and the real driver of that is that you can now have like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds putting cash in,” he explained. “But actually there's this whole other pool of capital in corporates, which is arguably a little bit freer and probably faster moving than waiting for pension funds to come and buy Bitcoin ETFs.”
He also noted a shift in the behavior of traditional hedge funds, which had previously been hesitant to enter the crypto market without the regulated access provided by ETFs. Now, these funds are actively engaging with crypto, recognizing market opportunities. “Now people are leaning into crypto not as natives but as traditional institutions who are just applying the old strategies they used to trade in equities to crypto," Ostrovskis observed. "You can see a lot of that like turn up in the flows that we're seeing.”
Looking beyond Bitcoin, Ostrovskis anticipates that this corporate adoption trend could extend to other cryptocurrencies, particularly Ether. He predicts that companies may soon emerge that mirror MicroStrategy’s strategy but focus on Ether accumulation. “It's probably only a matter of time until someone does the equivalent and turns themselves into like an Ethereum investment vehicle," he concluded. "At that point, you turn into the MicroStrategy of that world.”