Toncoin (TON) Price Outlook: Mixed Signals From Telegram-Grok News Stir Volatility as Bullish Indicators Face Pressure
Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network, has posted a 7.2% gain over the past week—despite turbulent price swings triggered by mixed signals over a potential integration of Elon Musk’s Grok AI into the Telegram messaging platform.
Initial optimism followed Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s announcement of a tentative one-year agreement to incorporate Grok into the platform. The news sparked a surge in TON’s price—up more than 20% in a matter of hours. However, the rally was quickly interrupted when Elon Musk publicly stated, “No deal has been signed,” casting doubt over the arrangement and leading to a rapid correction.
Durov later clarified that the agreement existed only “in principle,” which did little to calm market nerves. The conflicting statements created a ripple of uncertainty, but despite the volatility, Toncoin has managed to retain a good portion of its gains—at least for now.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
From a technical standpoint, momentum around TON appears to be cooling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a commonly used momentum indicator—currently sits at 69.47. Although this remains just below the traditional overbought threshold of 70, it marks a notable drop from the previous intraday peak of 81.55.
This pullback signals that the buying frenzy triggered by the Grok news may be waning, especially in the absence of confirmed, material developments. A sustained decline in RSI could open the door to consolidation or even a short-term correction.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bullish Trend Showing Fatigue
Toncoin is still trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, a popular technical analysis tool that provides insight into support, resistance, and trend momentum. The current price sits between the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) and Chikou Span (lagging line), indicating that short-term bullish momentum remains intact—but is weakening.
The narrowing gap between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (base line) also points to a potential loss of bullish strength. Meanwhile, the future cloud (Kumo) remains thin and flat, signaling limited upward energy unless new catalysts emerge.
Still, the Chikou Span remains above price levels from 26 periods ago, which technically supports the bullish trend. Should it dip below, however, it could be an early warning of a broader trend reversal.
Golden Cross Sparks Optimism—but Resistance Looms
Adding to the technical picture, Toncoin recently completed a "golden cross" pattern—a bullish signal where a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term one. This setup is often seen as the beginning of a potential uptrend and can attract momentum traders.
If Toncoin can sustain this formation, it may attempt to test resistance around the $3.59 mark. Breaking above this level with solid volume could pave the way toward the psychological $4 threshold.
On the downside, if bullish momentum fades, TON could fall back to its immediate support at $3.22. A break below that level might trigger a deeper correction, with the next major support zone sitting near $2.91.