Standard Chartered: Sovereign Funds Boost MSTR Holdings, Reinforcing $500K Bitcoin Forecast

Standard Chartered Bank has reaffirmed its bold $500,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of President Donald Trump’s projected term in 2029, citing growing indirect exposure from sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities through shares of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker: MSTR).

In a report published Tuesday, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, pointed to the latest 13F filings from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as evidence of a steady institutional shift toward Bitcoin — not necessarily through ETFs, but through proxy holdings like MSTR.

"The latest 13F data supports our core thesis that Bitcoin will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office, as it attracts a wider range of institutional buyers,” Kendrick stated. “As more investors gain access and volatility declines, portfolios are adjusting from underweight positions to more optimal allocations in BTC.”

Indirect Exposure on the Rise

While direct Bitcoin ETF exposure among sovereign investors saw mixed results in Q1 — notably with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board exiting its entire 3,400 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock’s IBIT — the spotlight has turned to rising MSTR holdings.

Kendrick views MSTR as a strategic workaround for governments and public entities that face regulatory barriers preventing direct crypto ownership. “We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he explained.

In the first quarter of 2024, several national and regional pension funds increased their MSTR exposure. Highlights include:

• Norway’s Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and South Korea’s public investment bodies each added MSTR shares equivalent to approximately 700 BTC.
• U.S. state pension funds from California, New York, North Carolina, and Kentucky collectively added exposure equal to roughly 1,000 BTC.
• France and Saudi Arabia initiated small, first-time positions.
• Sweden and Liechtenstein marginally boosted their stakes.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala increased its IBIT holdings from 4,700 to 5,000 BTC-equivalent.

Institutional Momentum Builds

Kendrick emphasized that the rise in sovereign and institutional ownership of MSTR reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is maturing into a legitimate macro-asset. “When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise,” he noted, adding that the quarterly 13F reports serve as a reliable pulse check for the institutional appetite driving the crypto market.

Broader Crypto Outlook

Beyond Bitcoin, Kendrick has issued ambitious projections for several other crypto assets:

• BNB: Targeting $2,775 by 2028
• Avalanche (AVAX): $250 by 2029
• XRP: $12.50 by 2028
• Ether (ETH): Revised to $4,000 by 2025
• Stablecoins: Expected to grow to a $2 trillion market by 2028

Kendrick has previously clarified that neither he nor the Standard Chartered crypto research team holds personal investments in digital assets, reinforcing the neutrality of the research.