Bitcoin Price Could Hit $200K, But Altcoin Season Might be Muted: StanChart Report
Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, predicts a potential surge in Bitcoin's price to $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by a wave of institutional investment. However, this institutional dominance could also mean a less pronounced "altcoin season" compared to previous market cycles, as capital concentrates on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Pension Funds to Fuel the Fire: Institutions Poised to Enter Crypto Market
Kendrick anticipates that institutional flows into Bitcoin in 2025 will surpass 2024 levels, with "long-only" funds, such as pension funds, entering the market. This influx of institutional capital, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs, is expected to significantly bolster Bitcoin and Ether's performance, with Kendrick forecasting Ether to reach $10,000 by the end of 2025.
A Tame Altcoin Season? Institutional Focus Might Shift the Dynamics
While this institutional interest is bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Kendrick believes it may lead to a subdued "altcoin season." He suggests that the dominance of institutional flows will partially offset the typical rotation of capital into altcoins. However, QCP Capital analysts offer a contrasting view, suggesting that the recent launch of a memecoin could act as a catalyst for a new altcoin season.
New ETFs Add Complexity: Calamos Enters the Fray
Adding another layer to the market dynamics, Calamos launched buffered spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday. These ETFs utilize options strategies to limit downside risk while also capping upside potential. Cryptocurrency derivatives trader Gordon Grant noted that the hedging and structuring activities related to these ETFs are already impacting Bitcoin's options market, creating unique patterns in open interest.
Bitcoin's Evolution: From Volatile Asset to Institutional Staple?
Despite some caution in the options market, as indicated by an increased put-call skew, Calamos Head of ETFs Matt Kaufman remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He emphasizes the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an investable asset, while acknowledging concerns about its volatility. "Our new suite of downside-protected Bitcoin ETFs will offer a menu of straightforward solutions designed to provide true risk management for this unique asset," Kaufman stated.