Bitcoin Market Sentiment Turns to Greed in April as Whale Accumulation Accelerates
April has brought a wave of optimism to the cryptocurrency market, with investor sentiment shifting dramatically from fear to greed. Following a 25% recovery in Bitcoin’s price since early April, on-chain data now points to a strong resurgence in market confidence—particularly among large-scale holders, or "whales."
Investor Sentiment Rebounds Sharply
The Fear and Greed Index, a key metric used to measure market emotion, has surged this month. According to data from Alternative.me, the index jumped from a low of 18 (fear) to a high of 72 (greed), the most bullish reading since February. A parallel index from CoinMarketCap showed sentiment rising from 15 to 52, indicating a shift from extreme fear to a more neutral position.
While these tools differ slightly in their methodologies, both agree: investors are regaining confidence. This sentiment change could pave the way for continued market growth, with the potential to enter a phase of "extreme greed" if the trend persists.
Whale Activity Signals Market Strength
A major driver behind this positive outlook is the behavior of Bitcoin whales. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports a distinct shift from distribution (selling) to accumulation (buying) across large wallet segments throughout April. Bitcoin’s rebound was supported by wallets holding over 10,000 BTC—now showing a high accumulation score of 0.9.
Even smaller whales, with balances between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, followed suit in the latter half of the month. Their accumulation score increased to 0.7, suggesting a broad-based confidence among both institutional players and high-net-worth individuals.
“Large players have been buying into this rally,” Glassnode commented, reinforcing the impression of a strong, sentiment-driven recovery.
ETF Inflows Reinforce Market Optimism
Adding to the bullish signals, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $2.68 billion in inflows last week alone, according to data cited by BeInCrypto. These funds saw five consecutive days of net positive inflows, suggesting that institutional demand is heating up.
The resurgence in ETF interest indicates not only growing investor appetite but also increasing trust in regulated Bitcoin products.
Institutional Forecasts Point to Long-Term Bullishness
Fidelity Digital Assets, the crypto arm of global asset manager Fidelity Investments, noted a sharp decline in the supply of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges. Only 2.6 million BTC remain on trading platforms—the lowest since 2018. Over 425,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges since November 2024, much of it absorbed by public companies.
These firms have acquired nearly 350,000 BTC post-U.S. election and are now buying at a pace of over 30,000 BTC per month. Fidelity sees this trend continuing, particularly as corporate adoption strengthens.
Meanwhile, ARK Invest has revised its long-term Bitcoin forecast upward. In its “Big Ideas 2025” report, the investment firm suggested Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million by 2030 under its most optimistic scenario. This projection is based on rising institutional interest, potential sovereign-level adoption, and Bitcoin’s growing role within decentralized finance ecosystems.
A Note of Caution Amid Bullish Trends
Despite the positive sentiment, some retail investors are approaching May with caution. The familiar adage “sell in May and go away” has reentered market discussions, underscoring concerns around broader macroeconomic risks, such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.