Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million Amid US-China Trade War Fallout
As trade tensions between the United States and China escalate once again, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, believes the ripple effects could radically transform the global financial system—and catapult Bitcoin to unprecedented highs.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Hayes outlined how the deteriorating US-China relationship, particularly under a renewed Trump administration, could trigger a financial realignment that positions Bitcoin as a critical asset in a changing world order.
Global Trade Shifts May Fuel Bitcoin’s Ascent
According to Hayes, the longstanding economic model in which the U.S. runs trade deficits and foreign nations recycle dollars into American financial markets may be reaching its breaking point. With former President Donald Trump reintroducing aggressive trade policies—including a proposed blanket 10% tariff on all imports—China and other nations are reconsidering their reliance on the U.S. dollar.
In response, China announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 34%, set to begin on April 10. Trump, characteristically defiant, dismissed China’s actions on Truth Social, stating: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!”
But behind the political drama, Hayes sees structural instability. He warns that if countries begin offloading U.S. dollar reserves or stop purchasing Treasuries altogether, the demand for American financial assets could shrink significantly. This, in turn, would undermine global confidence in U.S. fiscal leadership.
“The dollar will still be the reserve currency,” Hayes wrote, “but nations will hold reserves in gold to settle global trade... Gold must flow freely and cheaply in the new world monetary order.”
Bitcoin as a Hedge in a Fracturing Global Economy
While Hayes sees a renewed role for gold, he argues that Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to thrive in a decentralized, post-dollar-dominant world. Free from government control and borderless by design, Bitcoin offers an alternative to traditional financial systems—particularly appealing during times of geopolitical and monetary uncertainty.
“If the U.S. dollar–Chinese yuan (USDCNY) exchange rate hits 10.00,” Hayes speculated, “it could be the 'super bazooka' Bitcoin needs to ascend rapidly toward $1 million.”
His thesis hinges not just on currency depreciation or inflation, but on a deeper erosion of trust in legacy institutions. Even if Trump were to reverse his trade stance, Hayes suggests that the damage to international confidence may already be irreversible.
“Even if Trump backtracks... no finance minister or world leader can risk Trump changing his mind again,” Hayes explained. “You must do what is best for your country.”
For those preparing for this shift, Hayes recommends hedging with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and gold mining stocks—but also with Bitcoin, which he sees as the digital heir to gold’s legacy.